The Perception of Risk - a progression
The Perception of Risk – a progression
Did George Mallory actually give the reason for attempting Everest three times as “Because Its There”? Not all writers agree that he did. Certainly not Davis in the excellent “Into the Silence” that was published recently.
So why are seemingly hazardous activities so popular?
When I was working in Lancashire we had an active mountain biking group. We would take a trip out at least every month of about 20 – 30 pupils aged 13 to 17. On an icy day in Kentmere one boy slipped and fell off and cut the calf area on the back of his leg on the chain ring badly. It was so sold there wasn’t that much blood. I was the first teacher there being at the back. Another boy was holding the wound together and as I took over he assured me that you “can see the bone”. Sure enough he was right, but we managed to strap him up and got him to hospital where was laid on his back for 10 days and had more than 100 stitches. Fortunately we did everything right, but I was still worried about the uptake for the next trip, after the kids had reported back to their parents. I should not have: twice as many signed up.
Risk appeals and we generally we thrive on it.
Chosen risk is a wanted risk because of some expected benefits related to that risk. Therefore if a child is adamant that he or she does not want to jump into the deep water on a gully scramble then they don’t do it. If they want to walk their bike on a steep rocky downhill, then that is what they do.
The chosen risk may be the best alternative available because it is the best of all possible bad choices. For example, using an escape route when the weather sets in during an expedition. Being able to choose the best alternative also means being able to refuse other and even worse possibilities. Therefore, rejecting less attractive alternatives means a "relative improvement" of the situation.
It makes a great difference in risk perception if the risk or the actual problem is manmade or natural because the latter are more accepted than the former. This involves the control aspect and also incorporates the question of responsibility. We are convinced that a manmade problem could have been avoided by more cautious and prudent behaviour, or by better knowledge about the risky subject. We certify those responsible as being incompetent or negligent when in charge of children, and demand that they take responsibility for their incorrect action. In the case of an incident during an expedition, clearly this is the question for the inquiry. In the case of the recent Ten Tors Challenge when the weather becomes unexpectedly dangerous group leaders are praised for the safe return of their groups. If their group is missing on a finer day, then the inquiry is whether they received appropriate training? Was the group leader negligent even.
“Getting used to it” is a major aspect of losing fear. After two bungee jumps at the same site the third is less exciting. One suspects that Mallory had far more confidence on his third attempt. We are much more aware of unknown and new risks. But as we get to know a new risk we gradually habituate and start to accept it. A risk that is present for a long time is attenuated due to habituation, even though the technical risk remains the same. This is why known risks are more accepted than unknown risks.
Uncertainty also plays a major role in risk perception. If a risk is known to the affected person, then the contribution to familiarity is higher than if that risk is unknown to the affected person.
Risks perceived to have clear benefits are more accepted than risks perceived to have little or no benefit. The higher the benefit, the higher the risk we are ready to take. People don't take risks merely for the sake of risk itself, but because of the (probable) benefit related to that risk. Choosing between different alternatives always involves choosing between perceived risk-benefit combinations. For example, the benefits of descending a 500 metre zip wire are the thrill and the confidence built by achieving something for the first time that previously may be thought of as impossible.
Developing confidence and risk judgement among young people is crucial if we are to structure a society that is not risk averse. Uncertainty is inherent in adventure, and this contains the possibility of adverse outcomes. Counter-intuitively, the key to challenging risk aversion among leaders and decision-makers, is the application of balanced risk assessment, remembering to stress the benefits.
Risk perception is related to the age and experience of the pupils involved. A wild camp for 14 year olds is a thrilling experience and for them and a reason is the risk involved. Planned appropriately this activity is almost completely safe. Downhill mountain biking carries a much higher level of actual risk. Progression is necessary, and should be evident in a school’s outdoor programme.
Andy Weston